Assessment of possible changes of water resources of the rivers belonging to the Kuyalnytskyi Liman catchment at the beginning of the 21st century (2021 -2050) according to the models of the climatic scenario RCP4.5
Abstract
Relevance of the paper consists in the need of ability to predict the water resources state of small and medium-sized rivers of the North-Western Black Sea Region in the 21st century in order to justify the strategy of Odesa Region's economy development. The water bodies of the studied territory include Kuyalnitskyi Liman with its unique balneological properties used for health improvement purposes since the end of the 19th century. Global warming and construction of numerous artificial reservoirs across the catchments of the liman's rivers resulted in its shallowing since the 90s of the last century. Forecasts for possible inflow of fresh water from the rivers to the liman in the near future have a great importance for assessing the prospects of its natural resources protection and preservation. The aim of the paper is to determine a possible state of water resources of the rivers belonging to the Kuyalnitskyi Liman catchment over the period of 2021-2050 based on imitational mathematical modelling with the climate-runoff model taken as a template and using meteorological data of 14 models of the RCP4.5 climate scenario. Estimations of zonal (climatic) annual runoff were provided for six meteorological stations located across the Kuyalnitskyi Liman catchment and adjacent territories. Each of the studied models has the water resources, heat and moisture resources estimations averaged over the target territory. It is shown that, compared to the last century's data, water resources changes will range from -82.6 % (model CLMcom3) to + 75.4 % (model MPI-CSC2). An average statistical model which is the result of averaging all the studied models was taken for further calculations. It was established that the best harmonization of estimated and actual tendencies of runoff formation climatic factors changes is observed when the average statistical model is taken. According to this model, over the period of 2021-2050 the Kuyalnitskyi Liman catchment area will see a heat resources expected increase by + 12.3 % with a slight (-1.80 %) humidification resources decrease. This will lead to reduction of territory's water resources by 25.5 %. The transfer of some watercourses feeding the liman to natural annual river runoff made it possible to determine that, according to the RCP4.5 scenario, over the period of 2021-2050 the average long-term inflow of fresh water from the Velykyi Kuyalnik River will constitute 16.5 million m3 and the inflow from other watercourses – 1.3 million m3.
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