Ice phenomena in the Black Sea and the Sea Of Azov and their forecasting under the conditions of climatic changes
Ice cover is one of the most important factors determining the state of sea surface. Study and forecasting of its parameters is not only of scientific, but also of great practical interest for maritime economy. In the northern-west part of the Black sea and in the Sea of Azov the ice situation can be quite complicated, resulting in restriction of navigation opportunities and requiring use of icebreakers. Accounting actual and forecast ice characteristics significantly affects the efficiency of hydrometeorological services in marine industries, which determines the relevance of the chosen topic.
Modern global climate change led to changes of specific parameters of the ice regime in the northern-west part of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. Studies showed that for the last 30 years the number of warm winters had increased by 15% and the number of cold winters had decreased by 19%. The duration of the ice period had decreased by a decade in the Sea of Azov and by a month in the northern-west part of the Black Sea. This determines the need for verification of the methods used for ice phenomena forecasting.
Currently, hydrometeorological services are delivered using the methods of ice phenomena forecasting that were developed in the 1980s. The main disadvantage of these methods is the limitation of the period of their application and the fact that they do not consider any climatic changes taking place over recent years.
The article's aim is to assess ice conditions changes in the north-western part of the Black Sea and in the Azov Sea over the past 20 years and to verify the method used for forecasting the dates of ice formation and disappearance.
The analysis showed that during the studied period ice formation begins later and its disappearance is observed earlier than if compared with average multi-year periods. Verification of the ice formation and disappearance forecasting method showed unsatisfactory results that did not meet the practical requirements. Based on the regression analysis new modified equations for forecasting the dates of ice formation and disappearance were defined. The accuracy of a new equation-based calculation technique constitutes 70-94% and the forecasting equations can be recommended for practical use.
Ilin, Yu.P. et al. (2012). Gidrometeorologicheskie usloviya morey Ukrainy [Hydrometeorological conditions of the seas of Ukraine]. Vol.2: Chernoe more [Black Sea]. Sevastopol. (іn Russ.)
Ilin, Yu. P. et al. (2009). Gidrometeorologicheskie usloviya morey Ukrainy [Hydrometeorological conditions of the seas of Ukraine]. Vol.1: Azovskoe more [Azov Sea]. Sevastopol. (іn Russ.)
Vangengeim, G.Ya. (1952). Osnovy makrotsirkulyatsionnogo metoda dolgosrochnykh meteorologicheskikh prognozov dlya Arktikі [The basics of the macro-circulation method of the long-term meteorological forecasts for Arctic]. Tr. AANII [Proceedings of the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute], 34. (іn Russ.)
Abuzyarov, Z.K., & Dumanskaya, I.A. & Nesterov, E.S. (2009). Operativnoe okeanograficheskoe obsluzhivanie [Operational Oceanographic Services]. Moscow, Obninsk : IG-SOCIAL. (іn Russ.)
Ilin, Y.P. (2011). Klimaticheskie izmeneniya gidrometeorologicheskikh usloviy Chernogo morya [Climate changes in the hydrometeorological conditions of the Black Sea ]. Globalnyie i regionalnyie izmeneniya klimata [Global and regional climate change], Kiev: Niko-tsentr, pp. 247-254 (in Russ.).
Hurrell, J.W. et al. (2003). An overview of the North Atlantic Oscillation. In: Hurrell, J.W. et al (ed.). The North Atlantic Oscillation: Climatic Significance and Environmental Impact. Geophys. Monogr.Ser. Washington, D.C.: AGU, vol. 134, pp. 1-35.
Abuzyarov, Z.K. et al. (1994). Rukovodstvo po morskim gidrologicheskim prognozam [Guidance on Marine Hydrological Forecasts]. Sankt-Peterburg: Gidrometizdat. (In Russ.).
Dumanskaya, I.O. & Kotilevskaya A.M. (2009). Otsenka vozmozhnosti ispol'zovaniya prognosticheskikh metodik ХХ veka v sovremennoy praktike ledovogo obsluzhivaniya moreplavaniya na nearkticheskikh moryakh Rossii [Assessment of the possibility of using prognostic techniques of the twentieth century in the modern practice of ice navigation service on the non-Arctic seas of Russia]. Trudy GMC [Proceedings Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia], 343, pp. 61-79. (in Russ.).
Dumanskaya, I. O. (2011). Analiz vliyaniya tsentrov deystviya atmosfery na kharakter zim na moryakh evropeyskoy chasti Rossii [Analysis of the influence of atmospheric action centers on the character on the seas of the European part of Russia.]. Trudy GMC [Proceedings Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia], 345, pp. 51-73. (in Russ.).
The service of marine hydrological forecasts (1982). Nastavlenie po sluzhbe prognozov. Razdel 3. Chast' 3 [The service of forecasts. Section 3, part 3]. Leningrad: Gidrometizdat. (in Russ.).
Gavryliuk, R.V. (2018). Liodovi yavyshcha v Chornomu i Azovskomu moriakh i ikh prognozuvannia v umovakh klimatychnykh zmin. Vestnik Gidromettsentra Chernogo i Azovskogo morey [Bulletin of Hydrometeorological centre of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov], 2, pp. 32-51.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.