Forecasting the atmospheric air pollution caused by nitrogen dioxide in the City of Odesa
Abstract
In most of Ukrainian large cities with a high concentration of population the air quality often does not meet the requirements. The air quality is also a critical component for Odesa, a recreational and resort center of Ukraine. Moreover, Odesa is a city with a million inhabitants and a large number of vehicles, freight traffic resulting from the presence of the seaport. And nitrogen dioxide is one of the main pollutants. It is emitted to the air basin mainly by motor vehicles.
The paper presents the results of testing the certain methods of short-term forecasting of the atmospheric air nitrogen dioxide-related pollution level in Odesa. The study is based on the data taken from the materials of the National Report on the State of the Environment in Ukraine and the observations of air pollution using the network of stationary observation points.
The obtained results of the forecast for the winter period using the UkrSIHMI's method indicated that the dynamics of changes in the actual values of the indicator Q coincides with the prognostic values of such indicator. In summer the actual value of Q in almost all cases coincides with the prognostic indicators. The accuracy of the forecast according to the UkrSIHMI's method for the winter period averaged 96.6 %, and for the summer period – 98.3 %. According to the method of pattern recognition for the winter and summer periods the percentage of accuracy of predictions was only 67 %.
The UkrSIHMI's method proved to be more reliable than the method of pattern recognition. The low percentage of reliability of the forecasting results obtained via the method of pattern recognition may be due to modeling problems and small variance of pollution classes in the studied sample, as well as to the focus of the methodology on determining a pollution class rather than a level of pollution. The disadvantage of using the UkrSIHMI's method is the impossibility of using it in autumn and spring.
Forecasting the air pollution is one of the main ways to solve air quality problems in both industrial and urban agglomerations. Development of an effective prognostic scheme for forecasting the air pollution in our city can prevent further air quality deterioration.
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