Changes in the air temperature regime across the Dniester River basin at the beginning of the 21st century

Abstract

The relevance of the chosen topic is based on the goals and objectives of the Water Strategy of Ukraine until 2050 that provides for promotion of studies on the impact of climate change on the water content of Ukrainian rivers. The Dniester River is a transboundary river. It supplies water to Moldova and several regions of Ukraine. Predicting possible changes in the Dniester River's runoff due to global warming will help our society adapt to new climate conditions and take preventive measures. The research of the mountainous part of the watershed is of particular importance, as it is the area of runoff formation. Warming can change contribution of the snow component to the river's feed pattern and affect the total river flow. The object of the study: changes in air temperature due to global warming. The subject of the study: assessment of changes in the temperature regime within the Dniester watershed and impact of such changes on formation of its mountainous part's runoff. The study is aimed at assessing the changes in the air temperature regime within the Dniester River watershed at the beginning of the 21st century and assessing the impact of warming during winter season on formation of mountain rivers' spring floods. The main research methods include the method of difference integral curves and the method of regression analysis. The research materials include average monthly and annual air temperatures at 13 meteorological stations located within the Dniester watershed for the period of 1947-2021. The research indicated that the Dniester watershed is subject to warming. Statistically significant changes in air temperature began in 1988. Fluctuations in average annual air temperatures occur synchronously. Positive statistically significant trends over the entire observation period (1947-2021) were found for average annual air temperatures, average monthly temperatures of both warm and cold periods, and for the winter season. When considering two measurement periods (before 1989 and after), it was found that no statistically significant trends were observed before 1989. They were formed after 1989. It was also discovered that mountainous watersheds of the Ukrainian Carpathians respond to warming by forming negative trends in the fluctuations of average monthly runoff of spring floods.