On the opportunities of diagnosis and forecast of deep convection during operational activity

Abstract

Introduction. The increase of cyclonic storms intensity is one of the manifestations of widespread climate change. This determines emergence of extreme weather phenomena resulting in human and economic losses. Convective phenomena causing economic damage which increased significantly in recent years present one of the causes of abnormal weather conditions.

The purpose. The purpose of this article is to substantiate and to evaluate the technique of identification and forecasting the meteorological conditions “warning” of a high convective phenomena potential that leads to destructive consequences.

RAOB software along with GFS data were used when conducting the study.

Results. The technique of forecasting the phenomena connected with deep convection within the territory of Ukraine was tested in the article. It establishes the extent to which the existing criterial values of quantitative characteristics of convection allow forecasting the occurrence of weather phenomena related to it, their evolution and movement. Given the current spatio-temporal constraints to use the data of atmospheric radio sounding, the authors apply the combination of those with GFS forecasting data. It expands opportunities for forecasting such phenomena as thunderstorms and tornadoes. In particular, the use of forecasting data of wind profile, temperature advection intensity and humidity makes it possible to determine the trend to change of factors affecting convection intensity.

Conclusion. Combining the radio sounding data with the forecasting numerical modelling data makes it possible to increase the efficiency of convective phenomena forecasts due to the opportunity of recording the dynamics of changes of stratification of atmosphere and moisture accumulation in its lower levels.

Directions for future research. Adaptation of existing criterial values of convection parameters for the territory of Ukraine and determination of their forecasting significance will play an important role in future studies. However, absence of a systemized database associated with occurrence and evolution of convective phenomena make the task more complicated. That is why creation thereof is required.