Future climate change and it`s impact on precipitation and temperature in Ukraine

V. Khokhlov; N. Yermolenko

doi:10.31481/uhmj.16.2015.10

V. Khokhlov
N. Yermolenko

DOI: https://doi.org/10.31481/uhmj.16.2015.10

Keywords: air temperature, precipitation, regional climate models, linear trend

Abstract

Global climate change has provoked an active development in modern methods relating to the prediction of spatiotemporal hydrometeorological fields. Numerical modeling of nearest-future climatic changes allows to generate strategies of development for different areas of economic activity.

The paper aims to assess the expected air temperature and precipitation features in Ukraine considering different scenarios of climatic change. The modeling future changes of air temperature and precipitation were carried out using the A1B and A2 scenarios of climatic change. The outcomes of regional climate model ECHAM5 from ENSEMBLES Project were used as initial data. It was revealed that the air temperature will gradually increase in most of Ukrainian regions. Moreover highest air temperature will be recorded in Southern Ukraine during 2031-2050. The analysis of linear trends for 2031-2050 showed that the air temperature for the scenario A1B will exhibit a tendency to the decrease of temperature. However, the annually mean temperature in 2031-2050 for the ‘moderate’ scenario A1B will be higher than for the ‘hard’, in terms of greenhouse gases concentrations, scenario A2. The annual precipitation in Ukraine, both for the A1B and A2 scenario, will slightly increase toward the 2050 with the exception of Southern Ukraine. Also, the highest annual precipitation will be registered in the western part of Ukraine, and lowest – in the southern one. The paper can be expanded to the analysis of future dangerous weather phenomena depending on the changes of air temperature and precipitation.

References

Stepanenko S.M., Pol'ovyy A.M., Shkol'nyy Ye.P. (Eds). Otsinka vplyvu klimatychnykh zmin na haluzi ekonomiky Ukrayiny [Assessing the impact of climate change on economics Ukraine]. Odesa: Ekolohiya, 2011. 696 p.

ENSEMBLES project. Available at: http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk.

IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. 996 p. (Eds: S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor, H.L. Miller).

IPCC, 2013: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. 1535 p. (Eds: T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex, P.M. Midgley).

Nakićenović N., Swart R. (Eds). 2000: Special Report on Emission Scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. 599 p.

Roeckner E. (Ed.). The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5. Report No. 349. Max Plank Institute for Meteorology, 2003. 140 p.

Jacob D. A note to the simulation of the annual and inter-annual variability of the water budget over the Baltic Sea drainage basin. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 2001, vol.77, no.1, pp. 61-73.

Samuelsson P., Jones C., Willén U. (Eds). The Rossby Centre Regional Climate model RCA3: model description and performance. Tellus, 2011, vol.63A, pp. 4-23.