Wind speed regime in Tangier in 2021-2050

Y. El Hadri; V. M. Khokhlov

doi:10.31481/uhmj.23.2019.01

Y. El Hadri
V. M. Khokhlov

DOI: https://doi.org/10.31481/uhmj.23.2019.01

Keywords: wind speed, regional climate models, CORDEX, Morocco

Abstract

Introduction. The Moroccan energy system is highly dependent on external energy markets. This is why the current Moroccan energy strategy is focused on deployment of renewable technologies projects. Morocco has abundant wind resources.

The purpose of this publication is identifying the characteristics of wind regime in Tangier in 2021-2050 to assess the wind potential.

Results. This particular study used the data of regional climate modelling (RCM) with high spatial resolution of the CORDEX project. The article contains the results of RCM modelling using the RCP 4.5 scenario presented in the rectangular coordinate system with spatial resolution of ≈ 44 km. An ensemble of 11 climatic models was used for the analysis. To verify the RCM retrospective simulations for the period of 2011-2016 were used and to verify the RCM forecasts associated with wind speed we used the observations made at the Tangier meteorological station. The performed analysis allows us to conclude that average ensemble-based series of average monthly values are close to average values of the observed meteorological parameters. The models reflect the climatic parameters with varying degrees of accuracy and their results can be used to analyze future conditions of the climatic system in this region. Average wind speed for the period of 2021-2050 at the Tangier station will be equal to 5.1 m/s which exceeds the current value of 0.6 m/s. According to the forecast the wind speed in the territory of Tanger – Tetouan − Al Hoceima region will exceed 4.5 m/s. Comparison of the RCM-calculated wind speed value with the observational data for the period of 2005-2014 showed its increase. Based on the average annual wind speed values in each of the grid's nodes the linear regression coefficients were calculated.

Conclusion. RCM-modelling showed that in 2021-2050 the territory of Tanger – Tetouan − Al Hoceima region will be dominated by the conditions being favourable for operation and further development of wind energy. Comparison of model calculations with observational data of the current climatic period showed that the Strait of Gibraltar area and the adjacent territories will see the wind speed increase in the future. The maximum value of wind speed annual run will be observed during the cold period of the year which coincides with the period of increased demand for electricity by its consumers.

Directions of further research. The results of this study will be used as the basis for calculating the wind power in this region in 2021-2050.

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