Climate change impact on millet productivity  in the forest-steppe zone of Ukraine

N. V. Danilova

doi:10.31481/uhmj.25.2020.06

N. V. Danilova

DOI: https://doi.org/10.31481/uhmj.25.2020.06

Keywords: millet, food security, climate change, climate scenarios, yield, agroclimatic indicators, crop modelling

Abstract

Negative impact of climate change on crop yields is already an established fact. This is mainly due to rising temperatures and increasing likelihood of droughts. However, in some regions there is an increase of certain crops yields, especially the drought-resistant ones and this determines the need for research of agro-climatic conditions for formation of such crops' yield.

This article presents the results of the study of agro-climatic conditions for formation of millet crops, one of the most drought-resistant crops in the forest-steppe zone of Ukraine, affected by climate change. It considers temperature, radiation and humidification regimes of millet crops. The research of the impact of climate change on the growth, development and formation of millet crops is conducted according to the scenarios of future climate change RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for a thirty-year period (2021-2050) divided into three decades: 2021-2030, 2031-2040 and 2041-2050. The period from 1986 to 2005 is a basic period. The average long-term agroclimatic data for the forest-steppe zone of Ukraine observed in this period are used. The calculations were performed using the model of crop productivity formation which was modified and adapted to millet crop. The block diagram of the model of millet productivity formation includes blocks of main physiological processes of millet (Panicum miliaceum L.) vital activity: photosynthesis, respiration, growth, development and also includes a hydrometeorological block. It is assumed that the average air temperature will decrease in all three ten-year periods of both scenarios, compared to the accepted long-term averages. The results of calculations showed that in all ten-year periods of both scenarios there is an increase in millet yield compared with the average long-term data (1986-2005). The highest yield is formed according to the RCP8.5 scenario over the period from 2041 to 2050 and is expected at the level of 29.2 c/ha which is 19% higher than the current one.

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