Climatic changes and their influence on air temperature and precipitation in Ukraine during transitional seasons
Since modern research indicates climatic changes in all regions of our planet, including on the territory of Ukraine (in particular, the deviation of temperature and other meteorological parameters from the values of the climatic norm), their study is extremely important. After all, they can lead to changes in the nature of precipitation distribution, the length of the growing season, a decrease in the duration of the stable snow cover, local runoff water resources, etc. Most scientific works in recent years describe changes in the distribution of temperature characteristics and precipitation regime, because they are one of the main indicators of the state of the climate system. Therefore, the purpose of this article is to identify the features of changes in air temperature and precipitation for the entire territory of Ukraine from 2021 to 2050 based on the results of 16 simulations of the ensemble of CORDEX models based on the RCP4.5 scenario. The CORDEX project is a modern simulation of the future climate and has a resolution of ~ 12.5 km in the horizontal plane, which makes it possible to better simulate the characteristics under study. It integrates regional climate predictions that are generated using statistical and dynamic methods. The results obtained are presented for 177 cities of Ukraine, which currently form the basis of a modern monitoring network.
It was found that the number of days with precipitation ≥ 5 mm in transitional seasons increases on average by 1-3 days per month, depending on the region. The maximum values of the frequency of occurrence of the number of days with precipitation ≥ 5 mm are observed in the west and gradually decrease in the south. Compared to 1961-1990, the most significant changes occur with the number of frosty days with an air temperature of ≤ 0°С, which noticeably decreases during the study period from north to south. In April and October, for the southern regions of Ukraine, the considered parameter is equal to 0, which means that in these months the air temperature for these regions will have positive values.
From the above, there is a tendency towards warming in transitional seasons and a change in the nature of moisture supply to the territory of Ukraine in the next thirty years.
Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2014).Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC.
Otsinka vrazlyvosti do zminy klimatu: Ukraina. Klimatychnyi forum skhidnoho partnerstva (KFSP) ta Robocha hrupa hromadskykh orhanizatsii zi zminy klimatu (RH NUO ZK) [Climate change vulnerability assessment: Ukraine. Eastern Partnership Climate Forum (CFEP) and Climate Change NGO Working Group]. (2014). Available at: https://necu.org.ua/wpcontent/uploads/ ukraine_cc_vulnerability.pdf (Accessed: 25.10.2020) (in Ukr.)
Piate Natsionalne povidomlennia Ukrainy z pytan zminy klimatu [Fifth National Communication of Ukraine on Climate Change]. (2009). Available at: https://ucn.org.ua/upl/ukr_nc5rev.pdf (Accessed: 20.10.2020) (in Ukr.)
Pietrapertosa, F. et al. (2018). Climate change adaptation policies and plans: A survey in 11 South East European countries. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 81(2), pp. 3041-3050. https://doi.org/10.1016/ j.rser.2017.06.116
Hrebeniuk, N.P. & Barabash, M.B. (2004). Pro zminy temperatury povitria v mistakh Ukrainy u protsesi urbanizatsii [On changes in air temperature in the cities of Ukraine in the process of urbanization]. Naukovi pratsi UkrNDHMI [Procceedings of the Ukrainian Research Hydrometeorological Institute], 253, рр. 148-154. (in Ukr.)
Khokhlov, V.N. (2007). [Quantitative description of European climate change during second half of XX century]. Ukr. gìdrometeorol. ž. [Ukrainian hydrometeorological journal], 2, pp. 35-42. (in Russ.)
Khokhlov, V.M., Latysh, L.H. & Tsymbaliuk, K.S. (2009). [Possible thermal condition changes in Ukraine in 2011-2025]. Vìsnik Odesʹkogo deržavnogo ekologìčnogo unìversitetu [Bulletin of Odessa State Environmental University], 8, pp. 70-78. (in Ukr.)
Latysh, L.H. & Khokhlov, V.M. (2009) [Soil moisture content condition changes in Ukraine in 2011-2025]. Fizychna heohrafiia ta heomorfolohiia [Physical Geography and Geomorphology], 57, pp. 43-49. (in Ukr.)
Khokhlov, V.M., Bondarenko, V.M. & Latysh, L.H. (2009). [Spatial distribution of precipitation anomalies in Ukraine in 2011-2025]. Ukr. gìdrometeorol. ž. [Ukrainian hydrometeorological journal], 5, pp. 54-62. (in Ukr.)
Khokhlov, V.M. & Yermolenko, N.S. (2015). [Future climate change and it’s impact on precipitation and temperature in Ukraine]. Ukr. gìdrometeorol. ž. [Ukrainian hydrometeorological journal], 16, pp. 76-82. https://doi.org/10.31481/uhmj.16.2015.10 (in Ukr.)
Krakovska, S.V. et al. (2018). [Projections of air temperature and relative humidity in Ukraine regions to the middle of the 21st century based on regional climate model ensembles]. Heoinformatyka [Geoinformatika], 3(67), pp. 62-77. (in Ukr.)
Krakovska, S.V. et al. (2017). [Changes in precipitation distribution in Ukraine for the 21st century based on data of regional climate model ensemble]. Heoinformatyka [Geoinformatika], 4(64), pp. 62-74. (in Ukr.)
Balabukh, V. et al. (2018). Extreme weather events in Ukraine: occurrence and changes. In: Sallis, P.J. (ed.) Extreme Weather. London, UK: IntechOpen, pp. 85-106.
Osadchyi, V. et al. (2018). Dobova asymetriia klimatychnykh zmin temperatury povitria v Ukraini [Daily assymetry of air temperature changes in Ukraine]. Ukrainskyi heohrafichnyi zhurnal [Ukrainian Geographical Journal], 3(103), pp. 21-30. https://doi.org/10.15407/ ugz2018.03.021 (in Ukr.)
Jacob, D. et al. (2014). EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research. Regional Environmental Change, 14(2), pp. 563-578. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0499-2
Zamfirova, M.S. & Khokhlov, V.M. (2020). [Air temperature and precipitation regime in Ukraine in 2021-2050 by CORDEX model ensemble]. Ukr. gìdrometeorol. ž. [Ukrainian hydrometeorological journal], 25, pp. 17-27. https://doi.org/10.31481/uhmj.25.2020.02
Stepanenko, S.M.(2015). Klimatychni zminy ta yikh vplyv na sfery ekonomiky Ukrainy[Climate changes and its impact on sectors of the economy of Ukraine]. Odesa: TES. (in Ukr.)
Rummukainen, M. (2012). Changes in climate and weather extremes in the 21st century. In: WIREs Climate Change, pp. 115-129.
Prokopenko, K.O. & Udova, L.O. (2017). Silske hospodarstvo Ukrainy: vyklyky i shliakhy rozvytku v umovakh zminy klimatu [Ukrainian agriculture: challenges and ways of development under the climate change]. Ekonomika i prohnozuvannia [Ekonomy and Forecasting], 1, pp. 92-107. http://nbuv.gov.ua/UJRN/econprog_2017_1_8
Clarke, L. et al. (2007). Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. Department of Energy, Office of Biological & Environmental Research. 154 p.
Klein Tank. (2008). Algorithm Theoretical Basis Document (ATBD). European Climate Assessment & Dataset (ECA&D), 5, pp. 39.
Klimatychnyi kadastr Ukrainy (elektronna versiia) [Climate cadastre of Ukraine (electronic version)]. (2006). Kyiv: State Hydrometeorological Service, UkrSRHMI, Central Geophysical Observatory. (in Ukr.)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.