Climatic changes and their influence on air temperature and precipitation in Ukraine during transitional seasons
Abstract
Since modern research indicates climatic changes in all regions of our planet, including on the territory of Ukraine (in particular, the deviation of temperature and other meteorological parameters from the values of the climatic norm), their study is extremely important. After all, they can lead to changes in the nature of precipitation distribution, the length of the growing season, a decrease in the duration of the stable snow cover, local runoff water resources, etc. Most scientific works in recent years describe changes in the distribution of temperature characteristics and precipitation regime, because they are one of the main indicators of the state of the climate system. Therefore, the purpose of this article is to identify the features of changes in air temperature and precipitation for the entire territory of Ukraine from 2021 to 2050 based on the results of 16 simulations of the ensemble of CORDEX models based on the RCP4.5 scenario. The CORDEX project is a modern simulation of the future climate and has a resolution of ~ 12.5 km in the horizontal plane, which makes it possible to better simulate the characteristics under study. It integrates regional climate predictions that are generated using statistical and dynamic methods. The results obtained are presented for 177 cities of Ukraine, which currently form the basis of a modern monitoring network.
It was found that the number of days with precipitation ≥ 5 mm in transitional seasons increases on average by 1-3 days per month, depending on the region. The maximum values of the frequency of occurrence of the number of days with precipitation ≥ 5 mm are observed in the west and gradually decrease in the south. Compared to 1961-1990, the most significant changes occur with the number of frosty days with an air temperature of ≤ 0°С, which noticeably decreases during the study period from north to south. In April and October, for the southern regions of Ukraine, the considered parameter is equal to 0, which means that in these months the air temperature for these regions will have positive values.
From the above, there is a tendency towards warming in transitional seasons and a change in the nature of moisture supply to the territory of Ukraine in the next thirty years.
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