Influence of atmospheric macroprocesses on the spatial distribution of spring precipitation within the territory of Ukraine

L. D. Goncharova; O. M. Prokofiev; S. I. Reshetchenko; A. V. Chernichenko

doi:10.31481/uhmj.27.2021.01

L. D. Goncharova
O. M. Prokofiev
S. I. Reshetchenko
A. V. Chernichenko

DOI: https://doi.org/10.31481/uhmj.27.2021.01

Keywords: climate, cluster analysis, correlation coefficient, long-range low-frequency oscillations, atmospheric circulation

Abstract

The article presents the results of a comprehensive statistical study of the spatial distribution of spring precipitation in Ukraine and its relationship with the main low-frequency oscillations of the Northern Hemisphere. The research focuses on the monthly amount of rainfalls in March, April and May at 40 long-range stations of Ukraine that are evenly distributed throughout its territory, and the indices of North Atlantic (NAO) and North Sea-Caspian (NCP) fluctuations over a 45-year period (1962-2006). The use of multiyear data allowed for objective clusterization and division of the Ukrainian territory into regions with different types of weather observed in the event of precipitation, with each of them being physically substantiated. To ensure clarity, the article presents regional statistical models in the form of schematic maps of probable relationships between distribution of spring precipitation in Ukraine and the North Atlantic and Euro-Mediterranean macroprocesses. In order to forecast the monthly rainfall in March, it is advisable to take into account the state of the North Atlantic fluctuations. The response of this fluctuation was found within Chernivtsi, Vinnytsia, Cherkasy, Kyiv Regions, northern part of Odesa Region, western districts of Chernihiv Region and southern part of Zhytomyr Region. In the western regions of Ukraine, as well as in Vinnytsia, Kyiv, Zhytomyr and Chernihiv Regions, the formation of precipitation in April depends on the state of both NAO and NCP; in the rest of Ukraine – only of NCP. The 90% probability linear statistical relationship between precipitation in May and the main climatic signals of the Northern Hemisphere under study was not found only in some northern regions of Ukraine, namely: Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy Regions and central (Poltava and northern part of Cherkasy Region) part of Ukraine. A study of the influence of North Atlantic and Euro-Mediterranean macroprocesses on the distribution of monthly rainfall in Ukraine, conducted using a statistical approach, shows its ambiguity during different spring months and within different regions of Ukraine, and requires further research to solve the general scientific problem – study of climate-conditioned natural resources required to ensure sustainable socio-economic development of Ukraine under conditions of global climate change.

References

Lipinskyi, V.M., Diachuk, V.A. & Babichenko, V.M. (eds) (2003). Klimat Ukrainy. Kyiv : Publ. Raievskoho. (in Ukr.)

Osadchyi, V.I. & Babichenko, V.M. (2013). Temperatura povitria na terytorii Ukrainy v suchasnykh umovakh klimatu [Air temperature on the Ukrainian territory under current climate condition]. Ukrainskyi heohrafichnyi zhurnal [Ukrainian geographical journal], 4, pp. 32-39. (in Ukr.)

Svetlichnyy, A.A. & Ibragimova, M.S. (2016). K voprosu o sovremennyh izmeneniyah klimata Severo-Zapadnogo Prichernomor'ya [To the problem of current climate change over Noth-West Black-Sea Region]. Visnyk ONU. Ser.: Heohrafichni ta heolohichni nauky [Bulletin ONU. Ser.: Geographic and Geologic Science], 21(1), pp. 22-41. (in Russ.)

Balabukh, V.O. & Zibtsev, S.V. (2016). Vplyv zminy klimatu na kilkist ta ploshchu lisovykh pozhezh u Pivnichno-Chornomorskomu rehioni Ukrainy [Climate change impact on the number and area of forest fire over Noth Black-Sea Region in Ukraine]. Ukraïnsʹkij gìdrometeorologìčnij žurnal [Ukrainian hydrometeorological journal], 18, pp. 60-71. https://doi.org/10.31481/uhmj.18.2016.07 (in Ukr.)

Shver, Ts.A. (1983). Atmosfernye osadki na territorii SSSR [Atmospheric precipitation on the territory of USSR]. Leningrad : Gidrometeoizdat. (in Russ.)

Lipinskyi, V.M., Osadchyi, V.I. & Babichenko, V.M. (eds) (2006). Stykhiini meteorolohichni yavyshcha na terytorii Ukrainy za ostannie dvadtsiatyrichchia (1986-2005 rr.) [Natural meteorological phenomena on the territory of Ukraine for the last twenty years (1986-2005)]. Kyiv. (in Ukr.)

Stepanenko, S.M. & Poliovyi, A.M. (eds) (2015). Klimatychni zminy ta ikh vplyv na sfery ekonomiky Ukrainy [Climate change and its impact on the economy of Ukraine]. Odesa : Publ. TES. (in Ukr.)

Nazhmudinova, O.M. & Yermolenko, N.S. (2011). Deiaki aspekty formuvannia intensyvnykh posushlyvykh yavyshch vlitku 2010 r. nad Skhidnoiu Yevropoiu [Some aspects of the formation of intense droughts in the summer of 2010 over Eastern Europe. Ukraïnsʹkij gìdrometeorologìčnij žurnal [Ukrainian hydrometeorological journal], 9, pp. 79-84. (in Ukr.)

Khokhlov, V.M. et al. (2016). Zmina pohodnykh umov na terytorii Ukrainy v umovakh zminy klimatu [Changes of weather conditions in Ukraine under climate changes]. Ukraïnsʹkij gìdrometeorologìčnij žurnal [Ukrainian hydrometeorological journal], 17, pp. 31-37. https://doi.org/10.31481/uhmj.17.2016.04 (in Ukr.)

Khokhlov, V.M. & Yermolenko, N.S. (2015). Maibutni zminy klimatu ta yikh vplyv na rezhym opadiv ta temperatury v Ukraini [Future climate change and its impact on precipitation and temperature in Ukraine]. Ukraïnsʹkij gìdrometeorologìčnij žurnal [Ukrainian hydrometeorological journal], 16, pp. 76-82. https://doi.org/10.31481/uhmj.16.2015.10 (in Ukr.)

Ivus, H.P. et al. (2014). Umovy formuvannia zon nebezpechnoho vitru na terytorii Ukrainy [Conditions for the formation of dangerous wind zones on the territory of Ukraine]. Vìsnik Odesʹkogo deržavnogo ekologìčnogo unìversitetu [Bulletin of Odessa state environmental university], 18, pp. 48-55. (in Ukr.)

Shurda, K.E. (2014). Realii Ukrainy u protsesi suchasnoi zminy klimatu [Realities of Ukraine in the process of current climate change]. Vìsnik Odesʹkogo deržavnogo ekologìčnogo unìversitetu [Bulletin of Odessa state environmental university], 18, pp. 56-64. (in Ukr.)

Honcharova, L.D. & Kosolapova, N.I. (2017). Vplyv osnovnykh telekonektsii Pivnichnoi pivkuli na rezhym opadiv po te-rytorii Ukrainy [Influence of the main teleconnections of the Northern Hemisphere on the precipitation regime on the territory of Ukraine]. Visnyk ONU. Ser.: Heohrafichni ta heolohichni nauky [Bulletin ONU. Ser.: Geographic and Geologic Science], 22, 1 (30), pp. 11-27. (in Ukr.)

Honcharova, L.D. & Reshetchenko, S.I. (2010). Vplyv Pivnichnoi Atlantyky na temperaturu povitria, opady, pryzemnyi tysk na Livoberezhnii Ukraini [Influence of the North Atlantic on air temperature, precipitation, surface pressure on the Left Bank of Ukraine]. Ukraïnsʹkij gìdrometeorologìčnij žurnal [Ukrainian hydrometeorological journal], 7, pp. 45-52. (in Ukr.)

Polovyi, A.M. & Bozhko, L.Iu. (2016). Kharakterystyka radiatsiino-teplovykh resursiv v Ukraini na period do 2050r. v umovakh zminy klimatu [Characteristics of radiation and thermal resources in Ukraine for the period up to 2050 in the context of climate change]. Ukraïnsʹkij gìdrometeorologìčnij žurnal [Ukrainian hydrometeorological journal], 17, pp. 70-78. https://doi.org/10.31481/uhmj.17.2016.08 (in Ukr.)

Polovyi, A.M. & Shablii, O.V. (2016). Radiatsiino-teplovi resursy stepovoi zony Ukrainy na period do 2050r. pid vplyvom zmin klimatu [Radiation and thermal resources of the steppe zone of Ukraine for the period up to 2050 under the influence of climate change]. Ukraïnsʹkij gìdrometeorologìčnij žurnal [Ukrainian hydrometeorological journal], 18, pp. 82-89. https://doi.org/10.31481/uhmj.18.2016.09 (in Ukr.)

Perevedentsev, Yu.P. (2009). Teoriya klimata [Climate theory]. 2-nd ed. revised and supplemented. Kazan`: Kazan` State Un-ty. (in Russ.)

Kazakevich, D.I. (1971). Osnovy teorii sluchaynykh funktsiy i ee primenenie v gidrometeorologii [Fundamentals of the theory of random functions and its application in hydrometeorology]. Leningrad : Gidrometizdat. (in Russ.)

Goncharova, L.D. (2014). Vozdushnye techeniya troposfery i stratosfery severnogo polushariya [Air currents of the troposphere and stratosphere of the northern hemisphere]. Odessa: TES. (in Russ.)

Honcharova, L.D. & Shkolnyi, Ye.P. (2007). Metody obrobky ta analizu hidrometeorolohichnoi informatsii (zbirnyk zadach i vprav) [Methods of processing and analysis of hydrometeorological information (collection of tasks and exercises)]. Odesa: Ekolohiia. (in Ukr.)

Honcharova, L.D. (2016). Metody bahatovymirnoho statystychnoho analizu meteorolohichnykh poliv ta atmosfernykh protsesiv [Methods of multidimensional statistical analysis of meteorological fields and atmospheric processes]. Odesa: TES. (in Ukr.)

Serga, E.N. (2003). Universal'nyy adaptivnyy iteratsionnyy metod klasternogo analiza [Universal adaptive iterative method of cluster analysis]. Meteorolohiia, klimatolohiia ta hidrolohiia [Meteorology, climatology and gydrology], 47, pp. 83-89. (in Russ.)

Kutiel, H. & Benaroch, Y. (2002). North Sea-Caspian (NCP) – an upper level atmospheric teleconnection affecting the Eastern Mediterranean: Identification and definition. Theor. Appl. Clіmatol, 71, pp. 17-28.

Korres, G., Pinardi, N. & Lascaratos, A. (2000). The ocean response to low-frequency interannual atmospheric variability in the Mediterranean Sea. Part. I: Sensitivity experiments and energy analysis. J. Clіmate, 13, pp. 705-731.

Polonskiy, A.B. (2008). Rol' okeana v izmeneniyakh klimata [Ocean role in climate change]. Kiev: Dumka. (in Russ.)

Bodri, L. & Cermak, V. (2003). High frequency variability in recent climate and the north Atlantic oscillation. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 74, pp. 33-40.