Wind potential assessment over Morocco`s Marrakesh - Safi Region in 2021-2050 based on the RCM`s forecasts as part of the CORDEX-Africa project
Abstract
The purpose of the study is to determine the features of the spatial distribution of the wind speed in Marrakesh - Safi region in 2021-2050, as well as the distribution of the specific power of the wind flow at various altitudes above the earth’s surface to determine the wind class of the area in the coming decades. Currently, the region has two large wind farms: Essaouira-Amogdoul and Tarfayer. To assess the future state of climate in Marrakesh − Safi region, the results of calculations of regional climate models (RCM) of the CORDEX-Africa project for the period 2021-2050 were used. The RCM modeling was carried out for the region of Africa, in a rectangular coordinate system with a spatial resolution of ~ 44 km. Model calculation was performed taking into account the greenhouse gas concentration trajectory of RCP 4.5. As a result of simulation for the period 2021-2050, mean monthly values of wind speed "sfcWind" (m·s-1) and the daily maximum near-surface wind speed "sfcwindmax" (m·s-1) at 10 m height were obtained. Then, based on the wind speed rows, the values of the wind power density at a height of 50 m and 100 m were calculated. The results of model calculations of wind speed showed that the ensemble mean of wind speed for the period 2021-2050 will be from 3.8 m∙s-1 in Kelaat Sraghna Province to 7.2 m∙s-1 on the stretch of the Atlantic coast between Cap Sim and Cap Tafelny.The distribution over the territory will be influenced by proximity to the ocean, models predict the highest wind speeds on the coast, and when moving deep into the region, the wind speed will decrease.The analysis of simulation results showed that in the coastal areas of the region favorable conditions in terms of wind energy development will remain, and the highest wind speeds of the model are predicted on the Atlantic coast between Cap Sim and Cap Tafelny. By the size of the specific power of the wind flow, significant wind resources will have the territory lying along the coast from Cap Sim to the southern border of the region, and in the area of the power plants Essaouira-Amogdoul and Tarfayer models predict the conditions corresponding to the outstanding wind power class.
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