Assessment of runoff characteristics changes of the left bank tributaries of the Upper Dniester under warming conditions

  • S. V. Melnyk
  • N. S. Loboda
Keywords: left bank of the Upper Dniester, climate changes, changes in the characteristics of annual, maximum and minimum runoff


The inflow of water from the left-bank tributaries of the Upper Dniester is an important component of the runoff formation for the whole river. The study of changes in their water content in the context of global warming is quite urgent and agrees with the provisions of the strategic programme for the Dniester Basin for 2021-2035 aimed at ‘climate change mitigation’ and ‘promoting the principles of sustainable water management’.

The paper's objective is to carry out a research into the changes in climatic factors and runoff characteristics that occurred on the left bank of the Upper Dniester in the early 21st century.

The research was performed on the basis of hydrometeorological data for the period of 1945-2018. The main research methods include the regression analysis and the method of differential integral curves.

It is found that, within the area under study, there is an increase in average annual air temperatures against the background of constant or insignificantly increasing amounts of annual precipitation, thus creating unsatisfactory conditions for runoff formation. It is established that, during the months of cold period, there is an increase in air temperature and that since 1989 the frequency of cases, when the temperature crosses the range of positive values, keeps increasing. 1989 is a turning point in the chronological course of average annual air temperatures; a positive phase of long-term fluctuations starts since that year. With regard to annual precipitation fluctuations from the mid-60s of the last century up to 2013, a positive phase was also identified; within this phase there was a short period of insufficient moisture (1981-1996). It was found that the response of runoff characteristics to climate change was not the same. Maximum runoff during the spring flood is the most sensitive to global warming, since such warming has worsened the conditions for accumulation of water reserves in the snow cover. The transition of maximum runoff fluctuations to the low-water phase took place in 1981. The average long-term decrease in the maximum water flow rates during the spring flood for the period of 1950-2018 amounts to -16.9%. Unlike maximum runoff, the characteristics of the annual and minimum runoff changed gradually during the winter and summer low-water periods and the final transition to the low-water phase of fluctuations occurred only in 2009-2011. Certain inertia of changes in the water resources of Podillya rivers under the warming conditions is caused by the subsurface component making a high contribution to the annual runoff formation (60%). Significant portion of the groundwater supply ‘mitigated’ the effects of surface runoff loss during spring floods. The research allowed establishing the occurrence of statistically significant negative trends in the annual and minimum runoff fluctuations since 1998. If continue to preserve, the identified climate change trends will decrease the inflow of water from the Podillya rivers to the main Dniester River.


Stepanenkо, S.M. & Polovyi, A.M. (eds). (2018). Klimatychni ryzyky funktsionuvannia haluzei ekonomiky Ukrainy v umovakh zminy klimatu [Climatic risks of functioning of branches of economy of Ukraine in the conditions of climate change]. Odesa: TES Publ. (in Ukr.)

Bo Libert. (2019). Joint and coordinated monitoring of transboundery rivers, frameworks, opportunities and bottlenececks – the example of the Dniester river. Hydropower Impact on River Ecosystem Functioning. Proceeding of the International Conference. Eco-TirasP. International Association of River Keepers, Tiraspol, Moldova, October 8-9, pp. 212-216.

Khilchevskyi, V.K., Honchar, O.M., Zabokrytska, M.R. et al. (2013). Hidrokhimichnyi rezhym ta yakist poverkhnevykh vod baseinu Dnistra na terytorii Ukrainy [Hydrochemical regime and surface water quality of the Dniester basin on the territory of Ukraine]. Kyiv: Nikatsentr, Publ. (in Ukr.)

Strategic action programme for the Dniester River basin 2021-2035. (2021). Chisinau - Kyiv. Strategicheskaya programa deystviy dlya baseyna r. Dnestr. Kishinev. Kiev, 2020. Available at:, (Accessed: 21.04.2021). (in Russ.)

Ovcharuk, V.A., Hopchenko, Ye.D. & Traskova, A.V. (2017). Normuvannia kharakterystyk maksymalnoho stoku vesnianoho vodopillia v baseini richky Dnister [Rationing of the characteristics of the maximum runoff the spring flood in the Dniester River basin] Kharkiv: FOP Panov Publ. (in Ukr.)

Horbachova, L.O. (2015). Suchasnyi vnutrishnorichnyi rozpodil stoku richok Ukrainy. [Modern annual distributing of discharge rivers of Ukraine] Ukrainskyi heohrafichnyi zhurnal [Ukrainian geographical magazine], 2015, 3, pp. 16-23. (in Ukr.)

Hrebin, V.V. (2010). Suchasnyi vodnyi rezhym richok Ukrainy (landshaftno-hidrolohichnyi analiz) [Modern water regime of rivers of Ukraine (landscape-hydrological analysis)]. Kyiv: Nika-tsentr Publ. (in Ukr.)

Shakirzanova, Zh.R. (2015). Dovhostrokovi prohnozuvannia kharakterystyk maksymalnoho stoku vesnianoho vodopillia rivnynnykh richok ta estuariiv terytorii Ukrainy. [Long-term prognostications of descriptions of maximal discharge of spring tide of the flat rivers and estuaries of territory of Ukraine] Odesa: FOP Bondarenko Publ. (in Ukr.)

Mudra, K.V. (2018). Analiz bahatorichnoi dynamiky kolyvan stoku Dnistra ta yoho prytok. [Analysis of long-term dynamics of vibrations of discharge of Dnestr and its influxes]. Fizychna heohrafiia ta heomorfolohiia [Physical geography and geomorphology], 3(91), pp. 15-20. (in Ukr.)

Melnyk, S.V. & Loboda, N.S. (2016). Razrabotka metodiki rascheta stoka nanosov verkhnego y srednego Dnestra [Development of a methodology for calculating the sediment runoff of the upper and middle Dniester]. Ukraïnsʹkij gìdrometeorologìčnij žurnal [Ukrainian hydrometeorological journal], №18, pp. 121-131. (in Russ.)

Melnyk, S.V. & Loboda, N.S. (2019). Stok nanosov Dnestra v usloviyakh izmeneniy klimata [Dniester sediment runoff under climate change conditions]. Hidrolohiia, hidrokhimiia i hidroekolohiia. [Hydrology, hydrochemistry and hydroecology], 3 (54), pp.63-64. (in Russ.)

Melnyk, S.V. & Loboda, N.S. (2019). Dinamika nanosov verkhnego i srednego Dnestra v uslovyiyakh antropogennoy nagruzki i izmeneniya klimata [ Dynamics of sediments of the upper and middle Dniester under anthropogenic load and climate change]. Odessa: TES Publ. (in Russ.)

Melnyk, S. & Loboda, N. (2020). Trends in monthly, seasonal and annual fluctuations in flood peaks for upper Dniester River. Meteorology, Hydrology and Water Management, 8 (2), pp. 28-36. http:// MHWM-00136-2020-03.

Kamzist, Zh.S. & Shevchenko, O.L (2009). Hidroheolohiia Ukrainy [Hydrogeology of Ukraine]. Kyiv: Inkos Publ. (in Ukr.)

Befany, A.N. & Melnychuk, O.N. (1967). Raschyоt normy stoka vremennykh vodotokov i gornykh rek Ukrainskikh Karpat [Calculation of the flow rate of temporary streams and mountain rivers of the Ukrainian Carpathians]. Trudy UkrNYHMY [Proceedings UkrSRHMI], 69, pp. 105-131. (in Russ.)

Loboda, N.S. (2010). Metody statystychnoho analizu u hidrolohichnykh rozrakhunkakh i prohnozakh. [Methods of statistical analysis in hydrological calculations and forecasts]. Odesa: Ekolohiia Publ. (in Ukr.)

Tetiana Zabolotnia, Liudmyla Gorbachova & Borys Khrystiuk. (2019). Estimation of the long-term cyclical fluctuations of snow-rain floods in the Danube basin within Ukraine. Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management, 7 (2), pp. 3-12.

Hrebin, V.V. (2006). Heohrafo-hidrolohichnyi analiz yak metod doslidzhen suchasnykh zmin vodnoho rezhymu richok [Geographic and hydrological analysis as a method of research of modern changes in the water regime of rivers]. Hidrolohiia, hidrokhimiia i hidroekolohiia, [Hydrology, hydrochemistry and hydroecology], 9, pp. 17–30. (in Ukr.)

Melnyk, S. & Loboda, N. (2018). Maximum flow of rivers of the Ukrainian Carpathians (in the upper Dniester) in the climate change conditions. Journal of Fundamental and Applied Sciences, 10(3), pp. 357-375. Available at: (Accessed: 21.04.2021).

Hrebin, V.V. (2005). Vnutryrichnyi rozpodil stoku vody i nanosiv livoberezhnykh prytok Dnistra ta yoho suchasni zminy [Intra-annual distribution of water runoff and sediments of the left-bank tributaries of the Dniester and its current changes]. Hidrolohiia, hidrokhimiia i hidroekolohiia [Hydrology, hydrochemistry and hydroecology], 7, pp. 133-143. (in Ukr.)

Didovetc, I., Krusanova, V., Fattermann, F. et al. (2020). Climate change impact on water availability of main water rivers basins in Ukraine. Journal of Hydrology. Regional studies, 32, article 100761.

Hall, J., Arheimer, B., Borga, M. et al. (2014). Understanding flood regime changes in Europe: a state-of-the-art assessment. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, pp. 2735–2772.

Blöschl, G., Hall, J., Viglione, A. et al. (2019). Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods. Nature, 573, pp. 108–111.

How to Cite
Melnyk, S. V., & Loboda, N. S. (2021). Assessment of runoff characteristics changes of the left bank tributaries of the Upper Dniester under warming conditions. Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Journal, (27), 55-65.
Hydrology, Water Resourses, Hydrochemistry