Evaluation of water resources changes of the Mountain Dniester in 20th century following the RCP8.5 scenario and based on the “climate-runoff” model

Abstract

The relevance of the research consists in the need for evaluating the water resources changes of the Dniester due to global warming. The mountain part of the Dniester Basin is a zone of the river's runoff formation that determines its water content. The subject of research includes a process of climate changes and their impact on the water resources of the Mountain Dniester’s catchments. The research focuses on determining the water resources changes under current and possible future climatic conditions represented by climatic scenarios.

The research aims at evaluating the water resources changes of the mountain part of the Dniester’s catchment area at the present and in the future by the mid-21 st century (2021-2050) based on the “climate-runoff” model using meteorological observations data (up to 2018 inclusive) and scenario data (averaged data based on 14 mathematical models of the CORDEX project, RCP8.5 scenario).

During the research the resources of humidification, heat (heat equivalent) and water content for modern (1989-2018) and scenario (RCP8.5, 2021-2050) climatic conditions based on application of the "climate-runoff" model were evaluated. The theoretical basis for estimating the natural (undisturbed by water management) annual runoff in this model is represented by the water-heat balance equation. The meteorological characteristics (average monthly air temperatures and precipitation) serve as input data. The runoff calculated using the water-heat balance equation is called a climatic runoff. One of the peculiarities of the research consists in the use of the vertical zoning law with respect to distribution of runoff and climatic factors of its formation. During the comparative analysis the dependence of annual runoff norms on height of the Mountain Dniester’s terrain specified in modern regulatory documents served as a basic dependence. Such dependence reflects an altitude-dependant distribution of runoff for the climatic conditions that preceded the significant impact of global warming on air temperature (until 1989).

The analysis of the dependences of average long-term values of the annual runoff depending on the terrain altitude showed that the runoff changes for two studied periods (before and after 1989) are within ±12,3%. The analysis of the graphs of chronological course of annual water flow of the mountain tributaries of the Dniester made it possible to confirm the absence of statistically significant trends in their fluctuations.

According to the RCP8.5 climate scenario over the period of 2021-2050 and following the results of calculations based on the “climate-runoff” model, the dependences of the average long-term altitude-related values of climatic factors and climatic runoff were retrieved. It was found that the effects of global warming decrease with increasing altitude. In the foothills (up to 200 m) the annual precipitation decreases (up to 11%), the maximum possible evaporation increases (up to 17%) and water resources decrease (up to 46%). Heat resources cease to increase and water resources cease to reduce at the altitudes over 800 m. The average deviation of the scenario and baseline values for precipitation over the estimated period will amount to 2.41% for precipitation, 5.79% for maximum possible evaporation and 8.87% for water resources. Thus, reduction of water resources in the mountainous part of the Dniester by the mid-21 st century will be insignificant. When evaluating the current state of water resources of the Mountain Dniester no significant changes were discovered, thereby not contradicting the other authors’ data.