Assessment of Hadzhibeysky estuary and forecasting possible water level in it
Abstract
Introduction. Modern hydrology of the Hadzhibeysky estuary is due to natural and anthropogenic factors and characterized by their intense economic use. Since the beginning of the last century, there was an intense discharge of municipal waters from Odessa (biological treatment plant "North"). This led to a significant increase in the levels of water in the estuary, which threatened to destroy the dam that separates the estuary from the sea, with the possible flooding of residential areas and enterprises of the Peresip area, as well as the road, on the dam, especially in disastrously high water years. Purpose. The purpose problems – are estimation of filling the closed estuaries-reservoirs in north-west area of the Black sea and long–term forecasting of their condition during the spring period of year. The first task – an analysis of conditions of the Hadzhibeysky estuary in the presence of an exceptional spring flood and rain floods of exceedance probability (P = 1%). The second task – is to develop a methodology for the long-term forecasting of filling of the Hadzhibeysky estuary during the spring flood, which is the most abundant phase in the hydrological regime into the territory.
Results. For the first time, the possibility of assessing the filling degree surface water from melting snow and rainfall when the estimated probability of exceeding P=1% in the closed estuaries-reservoirs of the Black Sea areas. The method of the long-term forecast of surface water during the spring period for the closed estuaries was substantiated. Typification of spring floods in accordance with their water content according to the model – discriminant function DF, which takes account of the complex of factors having an influence upon conditions of spring flood formation. Setting the probability of occurrence of the forecasting flow layers in the long-term period are implemented.
Conclusion. This method allows risk assessment for sustainable land – and water use planning within the Black Sea estuaries. The method of the long-term forecast was realized by the author in operational work at the Hydrometeorological Center of the Black and Azov Seas.
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