Impact of climate changes on water resources of Kuialnyk Liman catchment in scenario climate conditions

N.S. Loboda; Y.V. Bozhok

doi:10.31481/uhmj.16.2015.25

N.S. Loboda
Y.V. Bozhok

DOI: https://doi.org/10.31481/uhmj.16.2015.25

Keywords: water resources, Kuyalnyk Liman, global warming, climate change scenarios, model

Abstract

The actuality of research is conditioned by necessity of water regime determination under climate change for substantiate management its water resources in future. The purpose of investigation is evaluation of changes in water resources of Kuyalnyk Liman catchment under climate change.

The main method of research is model "climate- runoff ", developed at the Odessa State Environmental University. Database of global climate change scenarios A1B (realized in regional climate model REMO) and A2 (developed under the regional climate model RCA) was used.

The analysis of fluctuation regularity of climatic factors of the flow formation on the Kuyalnyk Liman catchment and surrounding areas according to selected scenarios using difference-integral curves are done. Changes in precipitation and the maximum possible evaporation for the 30-year intervals up to the year 2100 (scenario A1D) or up to the year 2050 (scenario A2) are analyzed. The main tendencies in water resources of Kuyalnyk Liman using the model "climate- runoff" in the future are established. It is shown that according to the scenario A1B by the middle of XXI century possible reduction of water resources in the Kuyalnyk Liman catchment is 40%. According to the scenario A2 water resources in northern part of the basin can grow on average by 20-30%, and in the southern part runoff can be reduced on average by 10%.

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