An assessment of spatiotemporal distribution of drought in Transcarpathian region during the nearest perspective until 2050
The paper describes the features of spatiotemporal distribution of drought at long-time periods in Transcarpathian region under the projected temperature and precipitation regime in the period of 2020-2050. Analysis of temperature and moisture conditions was produced using the CORDEX climate modeling data for climate scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. It is shown that an increase of mean annual air temperature at the stations will occur mainly due to increasing of winter temperatures in both scenarios. The average annual precipitation sum will increase insignificantly, but will be observed the opposite trends in winter and summer precipitation. Evaluation of spatial and temporal distribution of drought using drought index SPEI showed that expected a general increase of the regional aridity during the studied period. Weak droughts will be prevail in both scenarios with amount about 7-11 cases per 31 years. At the same time, under the relatively mild scenario RCP4.5 the droughts are predicted more intensive, and under both scenarios the total number of moderate and severe droughts increases on time scales more than one year. The time course of dry and wet periods almost the opposite between scenarios, but in both scenarios is expected an increase of duration and intensity of drought episodes after mid of 2030s.
2. Buchinskyi I. E. Zasukhi i sukhovei [Droughts and hot dry winds]. Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat, 1976. 214 p.
3. Semenova I. G. Otsenka prostranstvenno-vremennogo raspredeleniya zasukh na Ukraine v vegetatsionnyi period [An estimation of spatial and temporal distribution of drought in Ukraine during the vegetation period]. Trudy GGO im. A. I. Voeykova - Proceedings of Voeikov Main Geophisical Observatory, 2014, no. 571, pp. 135-147.
4. Svoboda M, Fuchs B. A. World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and Global Water Partnership (GWP), 2016: Handbook of Drought Indicators and Indices. Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP), Integrated Drought Management Tools and Guidelines Series 2. Geneva.
5. Vicente-Serrano S. M., Beguería S., López-Moreno J. I. A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. Journal of Climate, 2010, 23 (7), pp. 1696-1718.
6. Ovcharuk V., Semenova I., Tonkoshkura V. Hydrological drought in Transcarpathia. Abstract book of 26th IUGG 2015 General Assembly, 22 June – 2 July, 2015. Prague, the Czech Republic. HW04 Hydrological Change in Statistical Perspective, HW04p-105.
7. IPCC, 2013: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1535 pp, doi:10.1017/CBO9781107415324 (Eds: Stocker T. F., Qin D., Plattner G. K, Tignor M., Allen S. K., Boschung J., Nauels A., Xia A., Bex A., Midgley P. M.).
8. Semenova I. G. Prostorovo-chasovyi rozpodil posukh v Ukraini v umovakh maybutn'oyi zminy klimatu [The spatial and temporal distribution of droughts in Ukraine under the future climate changes]. Fizychna heohrafiya ta heomorfolohiya - Physical geography and geomorphology, 2015, no. 1 (77), pp. 144-151.
9. Vicente-Serrano S. M., Beguería S., López-Moreno J. I., Angulo M., El Kenawy A. A new global 0.5° gridded dataset (1901–2006) of a multiscalar drought index: comparison with current drought index datasets based on the palmer drought severity index. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2010, 11 (4), pp. 1033-1043.
10. Thornthwaite C. W. An approach toward a rational classification of climate. Geogr. Revew., 1948, 38, pp. 55-94.
11. Abramopoulos F., Rosenzweig C., Choudhury B. Improved ground hydrology calculations for global climate models (GCMs): Soil water movement and evapotranspiration. Journal of Climate, 1988, 1, pp. 921-941.
12. Giorgi F., Gutowski W. J., Jr. Regional Dynamical Downscaling and the CORDEX Initiative. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 2015, 40, pp. 467-490. DOI: 10.1146/annurev-environ-102014-021217.
13. Climate cadastre of Ukraine: standard climatic norms for the period of 1961 - 1990. Kyiv: Central geophysical observatory, 2006. (In Ukranian).
14. Bates B. C., Kundzewicz Z. W., S Wu, Palutikof J. P. (Eds). 2008: Climate Change and Water. Technical Paper of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC Secretariat, Geneva, 210 p.
15. McEvoy D. J., Huntington J. L., Abatzoglou J. T., Edwards L. M. An evaluation of multiscalar drought indices in Nevada and Eastern California. Earth Interactions, 2012, 16, Paper no. 18. DOI 10.1175/2012EI000447.1.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.