An assessment of spatiotemporal distribution of drought in Transcarpathian region during the nearest perspective until 2050

I. G. Semenova

doi:10.31481/uhmj.18.2016.04

I. G. Semenova

DOI: https://doi.org/10.31481/uhmj.18.2016.04

Keywords: drought, climate scenario, drought index

Abstract

The paper describes the features of spatiotemporal distribution of drought at long-time periods in Transcarpathian region under the projected temperature and precipitation regime in the period of 2020-2050. Analysis of temperature and moisture conditions was produced using the CORDEX climate modeling data for climate scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. It is shown that an increase of mean annual air temperature at the stations will occur mainly due to increasing of winter temperatures in both scenarios. The average annual precipitation sum will increase insignificantly, but will be observed the opposite trends in winter and summer precipitation. Evaluation of spatial and temporal distribution of drought using drought index SPEI showed that expected a general increase of the regional aridity during the studied period. Weak droughts will be prevail in both scenarios with amount about 7-11 cases per 31 years. At the same time, under the relatively mild scenario RCP4.5 the droughts are predicted more intensive, and under both scenarios the total number of moderate and severe droughts increases on time scales more than one year. The time course of dry and wet periods almost the opposite between scenarios, but in both scenarios is expected an increase of duration and intensity of drought episodes after mid of 2030s.

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