Assessment of water resources change of the Danube River in the XXI century under the scenario A1B using the model "climate-runoff"
Keywords:
water resources, climate change scenarios, the model
Abstract
The results of calculations of possible state of water resources within The Danube River basin in the XXI century were shown. This estimation was based on the model "climate-runoff", developed in Odessa State Environmental University. As the input to model data of climate scenario A1B (model REMO) were used. Average long-term annual flow values using meteorological data (air temperature and precipitation) from the scenario for different climatic periods of XXI century were calculated. 32 points (grid nodes) which were uniformly distributed over the catchment area of the Danube River were studied. Projection of changes in water resources was given by comparing the calculation results in the past (before 1989) and in the future (1990-2030, 2031-2070, 2071-2100). The major trends in climatic factors of the flow formation and water resources were established. It is shown that the climatic conditions in the XXI century on the Danube River catchment is unfavorable for the formation of runoff. The positive component of the water balance (precipitation) remains unchanged and the negative component (evaporation) increases. Isolines of norms of climatic annual flow within the whole basin were constructed. It is established that by 2030 a significant reduction of water resources will not occur; during the 2031-2070 diminution will be 17,9 %; during the 2071-2100 – 22,0 %.
References
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2. Stepanenko S. M., Pol'ovyy A. M. (Eds.). Otsіnka vplivu klіmatychnykh zmіn na galuzі ekonomіky Ukrayiny [Assessing the impact of climate change on economics of Ukraine] Odessa, 2011. 605 p.
3. Heide Schreiber, Lucian Theodor Constantinescu, Irena Cvitanic, Sergej Snishko and others. Harmonised Inventory of Point and Diffuse Emissions of Nitrogen and Phosphorus for a Transboundary River Basin. Water Research Project, 2003. 159 p.
4. Judith C. Stagl, Fred F. Hattermann. Impacts of Climate Change on the Hydrological Regime of the Danube River and Its Tributaries Using an Ensemble of Climate Scenarios. Switzerland. Water, 2015, 7 (11). рр. 6139-6172.
5. Tockner Klement, Robinson T. Christopher, Uehlinger Urs (Eds). Rivers of Europe. Elsevier, 2009. 700 p.
6. Mikhaylov V. N. (Ed.). Gidrologiya del'ty Dunaya [Hydrology of the Danube Delta]. Мoscow, 2004. 448 p.
7. Loboda N. S., Tuchkovenko Yu. S. The influence of river flow changes by climatic scenarios on hydroecological conditions of North-Western Black Sea Region. Naukovi zapysky Ternopil's'koho natsional'noho pedahohichnoho universytetu imeni Volodymyra Hnatyuka. Seriya: biolohiya, 2010, vol. 3 (44), pp. 143-145. (In Ukrainian)
8. Loboda N. S. The assessment of present and future Ukrainian water resources on meteorological evidence. Climatе and Water, 1998, vol. 1, pp. 1486-1494.
9. Stanĉík Andrej, Jovanoviĉ Slavoljub. Hydrology of the River Danube. Bratislava: Publishing House Príroda, 1988. 272 p.
10. The Danube River Basin: basin-wide overview. International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR). Vienna, 2005. 192 p.
11. Loboda N. S., Khokhlov V. M., Bozhok Yu. V. Аssessment of the characteristics of the dryness of Transcarpathia in modern and future conditions (under the scenarios of global warming) Hidrolohiya, hidrokhimiya i hidroekolohiya - Hydrology, hydrochemistry and hydroecology, 2011, vol. 2 (23). pp. 51-59. (In Ukrainian)
12. Kuprikov I., Snizhko S. Prediction of water content of Tisa River basin for the nearest and medium term under conditions of climate change. Ukrayins'ka heohrafiya: suchasni vyklyky. Zb.nauk. prats' – Ukrainian geography: modern challenges. Scientific Paper. Kyiv, 2016, vol. III, pp. 86-88. (In Ukrainian)
13. Hlavkova K., Sgolgay J., Cunderlik J., Parajka J., Lapin M. Impact of climate change on the hydrological regime of rivers in Slovakia. Bratislava: Slovak Committee for hydrology, 1999. 101 p.
14. Loboda N., Bozhok Yu. Changeability of climate and water resources of Transcarpathia. Vìsn. Odes. derž. ekol. unìv. – Bulletin оf Odessa State Environmental University, 2011, no. 12, pp. 161-167. (In Ukrainian)
15. Loboda N. S. Assessment of the fresh water inflow to the north-western part of Black Sea. Formulation of the problem and ways of solution. Prychornomors'kyy ekolohichnyy byuleten' - Black Sea Environmental Bulletin, 2010, vol. 2 (36), pp. 63-67. (In Ukrainian)
16. Vasyl'chenko V. V., Raptsun M. V., Trofimov I. V. (Eds.). Ukrayina ta hlobal'nyy parnykovyy efekt. Knyha 2. Vrazlyvist' i adaptatsiya ekolohichnykh ta ekonomichnykh system do zminy klimatu [Ukraine and global warming. Book 2. Vulnerability and adaptation of environmental and economic systems to climate changes]. Kyyiv, 1998. 208 p.
17. http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk
18. Mitja Brilly (Ed.). Hydrological Processes of the Danube River Basin: Perspectives from the Danubian Countries. 2010th Edition. Springer Science + Business Media, 2010. 437 p.
19. Shkolnyi Ye. P., Loeva I. D., Honcharova L. D. Obrobka ta analiz hidrometeorolohichnoyi informatsiyi [Processing and analysis of hydrometeorological information]. Kyyiv, 1999. 600 p.
20. Louli D., Maksvell A. Faktornyy analiz kak statisticheskiy metod. Perevod s angl. [Factor analysis as a statistical method]. Transl. from Engl, Moscow, 1967. 144 p.
21. Gopchenko Ye. D., Loboda N. S. Evaluation of natural water resources of Ukraine by water and heat balance. Naukovi Pratsi UkrNDHMI – Scien. Works of UcrSRHMI, 2001, is-sue 249, pp. 106-120. (In Ukrainian)
22. Gopchenko E. D., Loboda N. S. Evaluation of possible changes in water resources of Ukraine in conditions of global warming. Gidrobiologicheskiy zhurnal – Hydrobiological journal, 2000, vol. 36 (3). pp. 67-78. (In Russsian)
23. Loboda N. S. Raschety i obobshcheniya kharakteristik godovogo stoka rek Ukrainy v usloviyah antropogennogo vliyaniya [Calculations and summarizing of the annual flow characteristics of the Ukrainian rivers in the conditions of anthropogenic influence]. Odessa, 2005. 208 p.
24. Opredelenie gidrologicheskikh kharakteristik dlya usloviy respubliki Moldova. CP D.01.05-2012 [Determination of hydrological characteristics of the conditions of the Republic of Moldova. CP D.01.05-2012]. 2012. 180 p.
25. DBN Ukrayiny. Vyznachennya rozrakhunkovykh hidrolohichnykh kharakterystyk. [State Construction Standard of Ukraine. Determination of the estimated hydrological characteristics]. Kyiv, 2014. 137 p.
26. Loboda N. S. The impact of climate change on water resources of Ukraine (modeling and forecasts according to climate scenarios). Global’nyye i regional’nyye izmeneniya klimata - Global and regional climate change. Kyyiv, 2011, pp. 340-352. (Eds: V. M. Shestopalov, V. F. Loginov, V. I. Osadchiy etc.) (In Russsian)
27. Roeckner E., Arpe K., Bengtsson L., Cristoph M., Claus-sen M., Dumenil L., Esch M., Schlese U., Schulzweida . The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM4: Model description and simulation of present-day climate. Max-Planck-Institute fur Meteorologie, Report, 1996, no. 218.
28. Tuchkovenko Yu. S., Loboda N. S. (Eds). Vodni resursy ta hidroekolohichnyy stan Tylihul's'koho lymanu [Water resources and hydroecological condition of Tyligulskyi Liman]. Odessa, 2014. 276 p.
29. Ana I. Lillebø, Per Stalnacke, Geoffrey D. Gooch (Eds). Coastal Lagoons in Europe: Integrated Water Resource Strate-gies. London: IWA Publishing, 2015. 256 p.
30. Richard H. McCuen. Modeling Hydrologic Change: statistical methods. USA: Lewis Publishers, 2003. 433 p.
31. Loboda N. S., Gopchenko E. D. (Eds). Vodnyy rezhym ta hidroekolohichni kharakterystyky baseynu Kuyal'nyts'koho lymanu [Water regime and hydroecological characteristics of Kuyalnitskyi Liman]. Odessa, 2016. 332 p.
32. Posobie po opredeleniyu raschetnykh gidrologicheskikh kharakteristik [Manual for the definition of estimated hydrological characteristics]. Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat, 1984. 447 p.
33. Vyshnevs'kyy V. I. Richky i vodoymy Ukrayiny. Stan i vykorystannya. [Rivers and reservoirs of Ukraine. Condition and use]. Kyiv, 2000. 375 p.
Published
2016-11-24
How to Cite
Loboda, N. S., & Bozhok, Y. V. (2016). Assessment of water resources change of the Danube River in the XXI century under the scenario A1B using the model "climate-runoff". Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Journal, (18), 112-120. https://doi.org/10.31481/uhmj.18.2016.13
Section
Land Hydrology and Hydroecology
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
