Convective phenomena forecasting based on output data of numerical models available in the Hydrometeorological Centre of the Republic of Belarus

M. I. Prokharenya

doi:10.31481/uhmj.19.2017.07

M. I. Prokharenya

DOI: https://doi.org/10.31481/uhmj.19.2017.07

Keywords: indices of instability, the method of G. D Reshetov, the method of I. A. Slavin, categorial evaluation, the Republic of Belarus

Abstract

In the article you can read about the methods used for forecasting convective processes by means of output products of numerical models with various spatial resolution. It presents the methods for forecasting convective phenomena applied in the Hydrometeorological Centre of the Republic of Belarus. The state of the atmosphere affected by intensive convection over the territory of the Republic of Belarus on July 13, 2016 is analyzed. The categorial evaluation of the thunderstorm forecasting methods by G.D. Reshetov and I.A. Slavin is specified with the respective results presented. The article analyzes the forecast of convective phenomena conducted with the help of the non-hydrostatic regional model WRF-ARW.

Use of convective instability indices and calculation methods can facilitate convective phenomena forecasting. The advantage of their use consists in possibility of their application within the areas not covered by aerological sounding. However, selection of indicators of instability and methods of thunderstorm and other dangerous phenomena forecasting depends on features of an area under study and this requires further research.

To ensure more accurate convective phenomena forecasting it is necessary to consider radar, satellite and aerological observations when conducting numerical model calculations. The results of the research showed that convective phenomena forecasting requires use of models with a high spatial resolution.

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