Impact of climat changes on agro-climatic indices of the vegetative period of main agricultural crops

A. N. Polevoy; L. E. Bozhko; E. A. Barsukova

doi:10.31481/uhmj.20.2017.07

A. N. Polevoy
L. E. Bozhko
E. A. Barsukova

DOI: https://doi.org/10.31481/uhmj.20.2017.07

Keywords: climate change, warming, vegetation period, air temperature, sum of temperatures, precipitation, moisture availability, humidification factor

Abstract

Article in question investigates indicators of the moisture-temperature regime for the period of 1986 - 2005 (base period) and compares them to their expected changes calculated for different scenarios of climate change GFDL-30 %, A1B, A2, RCP4,5 and RCP8,5 for the period of 2021 - 2050 on the territory of Ukraine. Calculations reviled that most abrupt changes in moisture-temperature indicators in different soil-climatic zones of Ukraine can be expected in case of scenarios GFDL-30 %, А1В and А2. In case of scenarios of climate change RСР4,5, RСР8,5 thermal indicators are expected to be at the level of multilevel averages in all natural and climatic zones of Ukraine, except for Southern Steppe, where they are expected to grow. The greatest changes in all areas are expected under scenario GFDL-30 %, and they will increase from north to south. Under scenario А1В the greatest difference between calculated values and average multi-year values will be observed in the Forest-Steppe zone and in the Southern Steppe. Under scenarios RCP4,5 и RCP8,5 significant changes in the temperature regime are predicted only for the south and east of Ukraine. At the same time, according to the scenario of RCP4.5, a significant increase in seasonal winter air temperatures is forecasted. Analysis of the results of calculations for different climatic scenarios of water availability indicators for different natural and climatic zones of Ukraine for the period from 2021 to 2050 reviled that the most drastic changes in the climatic parameters of humidification are expected in the case of the scenarios GFDL-30 %, A1B and A2. In case of climate change scenarios RCP4.5, RCP8.5, no quick changes in the distribution of precipitation over the territory of Ukraine should be ex-pected. The greatest amount of precipitation for the year and in average for the seasons of the year is projected for the western regions of the country, the least one - for the southern regions. At the same time, for most regions the trend to increase the amount of precipitation is most likely in the case of the development of the GFDL-30 %, A1B and A2 scenarios. However, according to the scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, rainfall is expected to decline for the year as a whole and especially in the summer season in comparison with the actual for 1986 - 2005.

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