Evaluation of future trends of characteristics change of hydrological regime of rivers of the Southern Buh basin in the winter period

E. R. Rachmatullina; V. V. Grebin

doi:10.31481/uhmj.20.2017.11

E. R. Rachmatullina
V. V. Grebin

DOI: https://doi.org/10.31481/uhmj.20.2017.11

Keywords: climatic changes, hydrological regime, winter period, the Southern Bug, thermal regime, ice regime

Abstract

Introduction. Climate changes occurring in recent decades determine the relevance of the problem of forecasting such changes in future both globally and regionally. After all, knowledge of climate's behavior in future is very important when carrying out an analysis of trends of hydrological characteristics change. Significant increase of the global surface air temperature observed since the end of the 20th century is mainly caused by increase of concentration of greenhouse gases generated as a result of industrial activity. Thus, climate changes could not but affect the continental water resources and in particular the processes taking place in rivers.

Purpose. Assessment of change of surface air layer during the winter period within the South-ern Buh Basin and assessment of change of the hydrological regime of the basin's rivers following the changes of air temperature.

Methods of research. This study is based on the data for the winter period obtained from 24 hydrological station and 15 meteorological stations within the Southern Buh River Basin. With assistance of scientists of the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute and using the regional climate model REMO for A1B scenario forecast values of air temperature were calculated.

Results of research. The main regularities of studied characteristics change for the period of 2031-2050 were determined on the basis of prepared calculation dependences of the characteristics of ice and thermal regimes of the studied basin's rivers and obtained forecast values of air temperature. According to the climatologists' calculations there is a tendency of air temperature increase during the forecast period, and, respectively, increase of water temperature and decrease of ice period duration of the rivers within the Southern Buh Basin.

Summary (conclusions and author's recommendations). The results of the carried out research indicate the fact that the trend of increase of surface air layer temperature and change of main characteristics of ice and thermal regimes of the basin's rivers formed at the end of 20th - the beginning of the 21th century will develop in future.

References

1. Shostakovich V. B. About breakdown and freezing of rivers. Meteorologicheskiy vestnik ‒ Meteorological Bulletin, 1903, vol. XIII, pp. 13-18. (In Russian)

2. Panov B. P. Zimniy rezhim rek SSSR [Winter regime of the rivers of the USSR]. Leningrad: LSU Publ., 1960. 240 p.

3. Donchenko R. V. Ledovyy rezhim rek SSSR [Ice regime of the rivers of the USSR]. Leningrsd: Gidrometizdat, 1987. 247 p.

4. Chizhov A. N. Issledovanie, raschety i prognozy ledovyih yavleniy na rekakh [Investigation, calculations and forecasts of ice phenomena on the rivers]. Leningrad: Gidrometizdat, 1978. 132 p.

5. Bydin F. I. Zimniy rezhim rek i metody ego izucheniya. Issledovaniya rek SSSR [Winter regime of rivers and methods of studying it. Research rivers of the USSR]. Leningrad: SHI Publ., 1933. Issue 5. 237 p.

6. Rossinskiy K.I. Termicheskiy rezhim vodohranilisch [Thermal regime of reservoirs]. M.: Nauka, 1975. 165 p.

7. Ryimsha V.A. Ledovyie issledovaniya na rekah i vodohranilischah [Ice studies on rivers and reservoirs]. L.Gidrometizdat, 1959. 190 p.

8. Ginzburg B. M., Soldatova I. I. Longterm variability of the terms of ice phenomena on the rivers as an indicator of the fluctuations of the transitional seasons climate. Meteorologiya i gidrologiya ‒Meteorology and Hydrology, 1997, no. 11, pp. 99-107. (In Russian)

9. Strutyns'ka V. M., Hrebin' V. V. Termichnyy ta l'odovyy rezhym richok baseynu Dnipra z druhoyi polovyny XX stolittya [Thermal and ice regime of the rivers of the Dnipro basin since the second half of the twentieth century]. Kyiv: Nika-Tsentr, 2010. 196 p.

10. Rakhmatullina E. R., Hrebin' V. V. Estimation of the modern ice regime of the basin of the Southern Bug River. Hidrolohiya, hidrokhimiya i hidroekolohiya ‒ Hydrology, hydrochemistry and hydroecology, 2010, vol. 3 (20), pp. 89-95. (In Ukrainian)

11. Horbachova L. O. Long-term dynamics of ice phenomena in the basin of the Southern Bug River. Hidrolohiya, hidrokhimiya i hidroekolohiya ‒ Hydrology, hydrochemistry and hydroecology, 2013, vol. 3 (30), pp. 21-27. (In Ukrainian)

12. Loboda N. S., Sirenko A. M. The impact of global warming on the ice regime of the river Dniester. Naukovyy visnyk Chernivets'koho universyt ‒ The Chernovetsk University Scientific Bulletin, 2009, issue 480-481, pp. 200-203. (In Ukrainian)

13. Marynych O. M. Shyshchenko P. H. Fizychna heohrafiya Ukrayiny [Physical geography of Ukraine]. Kyiv: Tov-vo «Znannya», 2006. 511 p.

14. Budkina L. H., Kozyntseva L. M., Pustovoyt S. P., Kelembet V. H. The scheme of hydrological zoning of Ukraine. Heohrafichni doslidzhennya na Ukrayini [Geo-graphic research in Ukraine]. Kyiv: Publ. «Naukova dumka», 1969, issue 1, pp. 157-172. (In Ukrainian)

15. Krakovskaya S. V., Palamarchuk L. V., Dyukel' G. A. Regional model (REMO) in the study of severe precipitation in the Carpathians. Meteorolohiya, klimatolohiya ta hidrolohiya ‒ Meteorology, climatology and Hydrology, no. 50, 2008, pp. 75-80. (In Russian)

16. Rakhmatullina E. R., Hrebin V. V. Analysis of the correlation of the characteristics of thermal and ice regime of the rivers of the Southern Buh River Basin with air temperature. Hidrolohiya, hidrokhimiya i hidroekolohiya ‒ Hydrology, hydrochemistry and hydroecology, 2017, vol. 2 (45), pp. 44-53.